Track Record

Two separate ledgers: the live picks we have already published (timestamped before each match), and the walk-forward backtest that drives the models. We label them separately on purpose.

Live Ledger

timestamped before match

Walk-Forward Backtest

2013–2025

Out-of-sample results from re-training the model month by month and betting only on picks the model had not seen. This is historical simulation, not a prediction of live performance — live results above are what count against the product.

Backtest Picks738415W · 323L

Win Rate56.3%walk-forward

Flat ROI+17.5%weighted

Kelly Growth+317%$1K → $4.2K

Avg CLV+3.8%beating closing line

Per-Sport Backtest Breakdown

Walk-forward validated on out-of-sample data; p-values from signal-shuffle permutation tests (5,000 runs).

Sport	Years	Picks	Win Rate	Flat ROI	Holdout ROI	Neg Yrs	p
Soccer Draw Draw predictions — EPL + Ligue 1 only	19yr	195	35.4%	+24.1%	+25.8%	2/19	0.008
UFC Favorites — XGBoost + Elo consensus	9yr	292	66.8%	+12.5%	+36.4%	2/9	0.003
Boxing Favorites — XGBoost no-form + Elo	12yr	251	60.2%	+18.1%	+10%	0/12	<0.001
Total	2013–2025	738	56.3%	+17.5%

Odds Distribution (Backtest)